With lawmakers in the nation’s capital at odds over immigration and digging in their heels, hopes faded Friday about a possible funding agreement that could avert a government shutdown that was set to begin at 9 p.m. California time.
So what will happen if there’s no deal to authorize government funding and Uncle Sam’s ATM card gets yanked? Do Social Security checks get issued and does the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention keep tracking the flu? Read on.
Q How many Santa Cruz County jobs would be affected?
A In Santa Cruz County, about 500 workers at federal agencies such as the Social Security Administration office, U.S. Geological Survey and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration would be affected by the shutdown. College students attending Cabrillo, UC Santa Cruz and other universities with federal grants, loans or work-study jobs would be affected.
Q Does the government really shut down in a shutdown?
A Yes, and no. Most of the highest-profile federal programs that people regularly interact with and rely on continue operating, either because they do not require annual funding appropriations from Congress or because they are deemed essential services that cannot be suspended. But there are notable exceptions, such as national parks. And hundreds of thousands of federal workers would begin to be furloughed until a funding agreement is reached with no guarantee of restoring their lost pay.
Q OK, so what shuts down?
A National parks and monuments and federally run museums like the Smithsonian. Yes, even the popular Smithsonian’s National Zoo giant panda camera went dark the last time the federal government shut down almost five years ago. Among the national parks in California that would be affected are Yosemite, Sequoia, Pinnacles, Redwood, Joshua Tree, Mojave, Point Reyes National Seashore, and the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, which includes Muir Woods, the Presidio, Fort Point and Alcatraz.
The Bay Area’s national laboratories — Lawrence Livermore, Sandia, Lawrence Berkeley and the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory — could see workers furloughed with no promise of having their pay restored.
The last shutdown idled the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s disease monitoring program, which would be bad timing as the country is in the grips of a severe influenza outbreak. According to a report in STAT, an organization that reports on health issues, that would affect the CDC’s ability to track the spread of the disease and smooth delivery of vaccine.
Other federal operations that could be affected include the processing of applications for passports and visas, approval of drilling applications at the Bureau of Land Management and consideration of applications for small business loans. Labor Department monthly employment reports, Commerce Department data on retail sales and housing starts and a monthly Fed report on industrial production could all be delayed.
Q What doesn’t shut down then?
A Programs that continue include those deemed essential to public safety and national security, such as law enforcement, the military, foreign embassies, spy agencies and air traffic control. A prolonged shutdown could disrupt pay to soldiers and other employees in those agencies with no guarantee they’ll receive those lost checks, although Congress has authorized back pay after resolving past shutdowns.
Also continuing are programs that don’t rely on annual funding approval from Congress, including Social Security, Medicare and social programs.
In addition, federal programs supported by their own fees and charges, such as the U.S. Postal Service, don’t shut down. The federal courts can also continue operating for a while with revenue from their fines and fees.
Q Could this hurt the national economy?
A Possibly. Standard & Poor’s estimated after the last federal shutdown that it shaved projected growth of 3 percent growth down to 2.4 percent, at a cost of $24 billion to the overall economy.
Q How often has this happened before?
A The federal government has run out of money due to lack of funding approval — funding gaps, as they are known on Capitol Hill — 18 times since the current budgeting format was laid out in the Congressional Budget Act of 1974. Those included a 10-day stretch in October 1976 under President Gerald Ford and most recently, a 16-day shutdown under President Barack Obama in October 2013.
Q How long were the others?
A Four lasted just a day, while the longest stretched 21 days in December 1995 and January 1996, a dispute over long-term spending and deficit reduction between President Bill Clinton and congressional Republicans led by Newt Gingrich and Bob Dole.
Q Did those earlier shutdowns have the same affect as what might happen this month?
A No. The public scarcely noticed funding gaps in the 1970s. It wasn’t until the early 1980s that opinions by the attorney general held that a failure to pass new spending bills required the government to shut down operations, at least in part. The impact increases with the number of days the government is shut down.
Q What’s holding up a deal on spending?
A Immigration policy. Democrats are holding out on approving funding to push for protections for so-called “Dreamers,” undocumented immigrants brought into the U.S. illegally as children. Democratic President Barack Obama offered some 800,000 of them — about 200,000 of whom reside in California — work permits and deportation protections under his Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program. Republicans have called the program an unconstitutional overreach of executive power and President Donald Trump has moved to end it, though a court has kept it going for now. Republicans have said any deal protecting Dreamers must include provisions for strengthening border security, such as a wall, and policy changes toward more merit-based immigration.
Q But wait, the Republicans control the federal government, with both the White House and majorities in Congress, so why do the Democrats get to hold things up?
A Republicans hold majorities in Congress, but not huge ones. In the Senate, the GOP holds just 51 seats. To avoid a filibuster, a longstanding Senate tradition guaranteeing considerable veto power for the minority party, the Republicans need 60 votes. Senate rules permit one or more senators to speak for as long as they want on anything they choose unless three-fifths of the 100 senators invoke “cloture” to bring the debate to a close. Further complicating matters for the GOP, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has been seriously ill and not expected to be available for a vote.
Q Why doesn’t this happen in our state Legislature then?
A California voters in 2010 approved Proposition 25, which allowed budget passage with a simple majority vote, ending a requirement for two-thirds approval. It also docked state lawmakers’ pay if they failed to approve a budget on time.
Sentinel staff writer Jondi Gumz contributed to this report.